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Kellie Adlam

PhD Candidate

Contact details:
Madsen Building (F09), Room 432
Phone: +61 2 9114 1425
Email:

Supervisor
Assoc. Prof. Peter Cowell

Associate Supervisor
Dr. Eleanor Bruce

Research

PhD working title: Risk-based forecasts of changes in estuary morphology: using geological evidence in the calibration of an estuarine evolution model.

Kellie is part of the Geocoastal research group at Sydney University. Her research is focussed on coastal morphodynamics or, more appropriately, morphokinematics, with a particular focus on long-term coastal change.

Kellie’s honours project involved forecasts of coastal change in response to both sea level rise and human interventions, and took her to Rome, Italy. The study of the city beach, Ostia, drew upon multi scale trends in coastal evolution - a combination of long term studies of delta evolution (over thousands of years), medium-term data of coastline change (40 years) and short-term observations. A cross-shore, behavioural model was employed to conduct a risk-based assessment of coastal change due to various scenarios of sea level rise, and to contrast these with the magnitude of existing system change. The Tiber coast was an ideal field laboratory for such a study, as the existing erosion trends of Ostia beach meant the area had been the subject of much seismic, bathymetric and shoreline data collection over the previous 50 years.

A similar approach to forecasts of coastal change is being taken in Kellie’s PhD research project; the environment in question, however, is estuarine rather than open coastline. The study will attempt to forecast the effects of sea level rise on coastal morphology in estuarine environments within the context of underlying trends of estuary evolution. An existing spatial and numerical model of estuary evolution will be calibrated (and enhanced where necessary) based on both the geological record (dated core data) and more recent observations at estuarine field sites. A particular challenge of this project will be the parameterisation of the numerous and mutually dependent intertidal processes that drive the position of the shoreline in estuarine basins, since the majority of existing models are process-driven in contrast to the long-term behavioural approach adopted here. This project will contribute to the body of knowledge on sea level rise effects, but will also stress the relative significance of other drivers of coastal change, including historic human interventions and future management scenarios. These include a risk-based approach to evaluating effects of sea walls, land reclamation and coastal retreat/realignment, as appropriate.

Publications

Conference Proceedings

  • Adlam, K., Cowell, P.J., Tortora, P., Kinsela, M. (2010). Climate change versus anthropogenic effects on uncertainty: Tiber Delta erosion. In Proceedings of Deltas in Times of Climate Change, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 29th September – 1st October, 2010 (to be published).

Keywords

Coastal morphodynamics, coastal change, risk-based forecasts, coastal erosion, sea level rise, estuary evolution, intertidal processes, numerical model, estuary shoreline, sea walls, land reclamation, coastal retreat, coastal realignment